Prediction: Yana Santos via Decision
The biggest shift in Santos’ game came in her last performance, where she showed a clear evolution in her movement and fight IQ. Her footwork, which used to be a bit stiff and linear, has become more dynamic and calculated. She’s no longer just backing up or plodding forward—she’s actively managing range, using lateral movement to draw opponents in and setting traps to counter off their entries.
That evolution has allowed her to make better use of her striking tools. She’s starting to blend feints into her approach, which helps disguise her level changes and opens up windows to enter the clinch—the area where she really shines. The clinch has always been Santos’ bread and butter, but now she’s getting there more strategically rather than just forcing it. Against someone like Tate, who thrives when she can dictate the grappling terms, that’s huge. Santos won’t be overwhelmed physically in those tie-ups; in fact, with her size and strength, she can match Tate and potentially control her there. She’s good at pinning opponents to the fence, using shoulder pressure and knees to rack up control time, and her understanding of clinch breaks has improved, letting her score on exits.
Tate’s clearest path is her wrestling and her cardio. She’s tough, relentless, and can pour it on late, especially against opponents who fade. And that’s where this fight gets interesting—Santos tends to slow down noticeably in the third round and if she has to wrestle or defend heavy grappling in rounds one and two, there’s a real chance she’ll gas late. That’s where Tate can make her biggest push, maybe even threaten a finish if Santos is hurt or too fatigued to move.
But the problem for Tate is getting to that third round in a position where the fight is still within reach. Her striking has never evolved much—her entries are predictable, her footwork is flat, and she doesn’t do well against fighters who can control distance. Santos now has the movement and timing to frustrate Tate early, and if she can stick and move, land cleaner shots, and control the clinch when they do tie up, she should win the early rounds. If Tate can’t consistently close the distance or get meaningful top control, she’ll fall behind on the cards before her late surge.