Prediction: Sumudaerji via TKO
Sumudaerji is one of the better long-range strikers in the division. He uses his reach with purpose, keeping opponents at the end of his punches and kicks while constantly circling and switching angles. His movement isn’t just lateral—it’s unpredictable, which makes it hard to time him with counters or close the distance consistently.
Raposo’s main attribute is his speed. He’s fast—no doubt about it—and he has the kind of burst that can catch people by surprise. But outside of that, his approach doesn’t bring the kind of pressure or movement required to neutralize someone like Sumudaerji. He doesn’t cut off the cage effectively and doesn’t layer his entries with feints or level changes to hide his intentions. That’s a problem against a fighter who lives off keeping opponents at the end of his strikes.
Sumudaerji’s footwork and timing make it hard for opponents to even land clean when they do close in, and unless Raposo drastically changes his rhythm and forces more urgency early, he’s likely going to be picked apart round by round. Another thing to note is that Sumudaerji has shown real improvement in the area that’s been his biggest weakness—takedown defense. Earlier in his career, fighters who could pressure and wrestle had a clear path to success against him, but he’s tightened up his hips and his scrambling is far more urgent now. That removes a big potential edge for Raposo, who would ideally want to mix things up if he gets frustrated on the feet.
Unless Raposo can time a perfect counter or catch Sumudaerji stepping in with something clean, it’s hard to see him winning this one. Sumudaerji’s ability to move, strike in combination, and make opponents miss is just a terrible matchup for someone like Raposo, who relies on speed but doesn’t apply it with the type of pressure that breaks this style. Expect Sumudaerji to stay a step ahead, touch him up from range, and likely find a finish once Raposo starts getting desperate and opens himself up.