Prediction: Toss Up (Value on KO)
Oban Elliott vs Seokhyeon Ko is a classic case of the hype train pulling into the station with a price tag that might be a little too glossy for what’s actually going down in the cage. Yeah, I’m picking Oban Elliott to win — the guy’s got the wrestling, he’s shown composure, and his style is built to win rounds — but let’s not pretend like this should be anywhere near a -400 matchup. That’s just oddsmakers pricing in the UFC push, the market buzz, and the whole “Welsh Khabib” narrative without really accounting for the guy standing across from him.
Seokhyeon Ko at +300? That’s not a disrespectful number — that’s a mistake with upside.
Oban’s striking has absolutely gotten sharper. He throws clean, straight shots right down the pipe, mixes up his levels, and times his entries beautifully. Everything he does is calculated, designed to set up his wrestling. But that’s the key: it’s all designed to get the fight where he wants it — on the mat. He doesn’t strike to dominate on the feet; he strikes to wrestle. And if that plan A doesn’t work? We’re gonna find out what he’s really made of, because Ko might be the kind of fighter who forces him to go to plan B without a real blueprint.
Ko is the better striker, no question. He manages distance better, his footwork is smoother and snappier, and he’s constantly working — feinting, probing, shifting angles — forcing reads out of his opponent. The guy’s not out there loading up on kill shots, he’s dissecting you piece by piece. And he’s got the gas tank to keep doing it deep into the third. That’s important, because if Oban can’t lock up a takedown early or has to work hard to get them, that kind of steady forward pressure and volume starts to snowball.
What makes this even more interesting is how disciplined Ko is defensively. He doesn’t overextend, he knows when to sprawl, and he doesn’t panic when clinched. His balance is solid, his underhook awareness is sharp, and he’s been in there with guys who tried to take him down and couldn’t hold him. If Elliott doesn’t get clean entries or gets stuck riding Ko’s hips while eating shots, this turns into a much more even — maybe even Ko-favored — fight.
So while Oban Elliott is still the rightful favorite, the -400 line is all hype. It assumes Elliott’s grappling is going to be the deciding factor without much resistance. But Ko is the kind of opponent who doesn’t just resist — he punishes you for failing. If Elliott can’t turn this into a grindy, control-heavy fight, then he’s going to have to deal with being on the back foot, reacting to Ko’s tempo and range management all night.
At +300, Ko doesn’t need to dominate — he just needs to make Elliott uncomfortable for a round or two and make it a fight. That’s why there’s value. That’s why the smart money peeks at the underdog. Not because the favorite can’t win — but because the story the odds are telling? It’s not the whole truth.