Prediction: Rinya Nakamura via Decision
Nathan Fletcher vs Rinya Nakamura is one of those matchups where you just gotta trust the foundational skillset—and in this case, that’s Nakamura’s wrestling. Look, Rinya’s last fight was a lesson. He tried to show off the hands a little too long, played a striking game against a guy he should’ve grounded, and paid the price. But don’t get it twisted—he’s still that dude, and this matchup sets up perfectly for him to bounce back in a big way.
Let’s keep it real: Nathan Fletcher is solid. Long frame, good jab, and some sneaky jits in his back pocket. He’ll float around on the outside, use his kicks, and look to time reactive grappling entries. But that only works if the other guy is giving you space—and Rinya’s not giving you that. He’s a pressure-heavy, shoot-on-your-shadow type wrestler with real power in his hips and a freak athletic burst. Once he decides to level change, it’s already too late.
The thing is, even on the feet, Rinya’s got real pop. That left hand carries heat, and while he sometimes falls in love with it, it’s still enough to make Fletcher second-guess his range. Fletcher’s not exactly built for firefights either—he does his best work when he’s dictating the pace, not when he’s being hunted. So if Rinya’s smart, he’ll use the threat of the hands to close distance, get inside, and start doing what he does best.
And if Fletcher thinks he’s gonna wrestle with Rinya? That’s where it gets ugly. Rinya’s on another level there—like, Olympian vs regional circuit difference. He scrambles like a cat, sticks to opponents like velcro, and when he’s on top, you’re not getting up. Flat out. If Fletcher tries to grapple, it’s gonna be a showcase for Rinya’s positional control, ground pressure, and ground-and-pound.