Prediction: Jacobe Smith via TKO
Let’s not sugarcoat it. Smith is just younger, faster, stronger, and he’s got that real “I’m here to take your job” energy. The dude’s not playing games. He doesn’t waste time trying to rack up cage control or look for slick submissions—he’s hunting violence. That wrestling base? It’s a foundation he builds chaos on. He’s not just looking for takedowns—he’s looking to smash through your guard and leave you staring at the lights. His ground-and-pound is mean—sharp, fast, and relentless.
On the feet, it’s no different. Smith throws with real power, and more importantly, with intent. He’s explosive and doesn’t need long combos to hurt you. One shot, and you’re on shaky legs. He’s got the kind of speed and athleticism that makes even decent strikers look a step behind—and Niko Price, at this stage, just doesn’t have the tools to deal with that.
Now look, we’ve all seen Price pull off some wild, gritty, never-shoulda-happened finishes. But that was a few years and a few knockouts ago. He’s taken real damage. His defense has never been his calling card, and his durability is fading. Against someone like Smith who’s built to break you, that’s a death sentence. The chin doesn’t hold up forever, and Price has been relying on it for too long.
And it’s not like Price is some high-level grappler that can negate the wrestling either. He’s scrappy off his back, sure, but Smith isn’t going down there to play the jiu-jitsu game. He’s going down to hurt you. That’s a nightmare matchup for a guy who gives up positions and hopes for a scramble—because Smith’s not letting you scramble. He’s pinning you down and unloading bombs like it’s a sparring session with a heavy bag.
But here’s the kicker—Smith’s sitting at -2000. That’s not just wide—it’s untouchable. You’re not laying 20 to win 1, no matter how much of a lock it feels like. And at the same time, the KO and the under are probably going to be juiced to the moon or offer no real edge unless you hit it super early.
So what’s the move? It’s all about targeting a specific round and method prop. Round 1 or Round 2 TKO makes the most sense. Smith is explosive early and aggressive with his wrestling-to-GNP transitions, and Price tends to get caught before he gets going. Unless you think this somehow drags into a decision—which feels like a longshot with how Smith fights—you’re better off zoning in on an early finish prop and letting it rip.