Prediction: Myktybek Orolbai via Submission
Myktybek Orolbai vs Tofiq Musayev is the definition of high risk, high reward—on both sides. My pick is Orolbai to get the job done, but this is one of those fights where he’s going to have to be damn near perfect early on, because Musayev brings a storm like almost nobody else at 155.
Musayev comes out like a man possessed. His kicks are stupid fast—not just quick, but tricky, sneaky, and they come from angles that catch guys completely off guard. He’ll throw that question mark kick with no wind-up, mix up low-high without warning, and the speed translates into his hands too. He’s not just throwing fast, he’s throwing with absolute confidence that he’s ending the fight in the first few exchanges. That confidence is dangerous—he walks you down like he already knows how it ends.
But here’s the thing: that style? It’s a gamble. Musayev’s whole approach is built around that early kill shot. If he gets it, great. If he doesn’t, and the opponent can hang, the gas tank starts dipping, the defense starts slipping, and that’s when the floodgates open. That’s exactly where Orolbai becomes a nightmare matchup for him.
Orolbai is the polar opposite in how he operates. He’s calculated, technical, and fights with consistent pressure that wears on you. Everything he does—striking, clinching, wrestling—is clean. No wasted movement, no panicking when things get wild. He’ll weather that first-round heat, stay composed, and start turning it up once Musayev starts to fade. He fights at a high pace, but the difference is he doesn’t burn himself out—he controls the tempo and keeps that same pressure for 15 minutes straight.
And the wrestling? That’s where this fight can totally flip. Orolbai has some of the most suffocating top control in the division. Once he gets his hands on you, it’s not just a takedown—it’s a full-body lockdown. He doesn’t let guys scramble back up, and he chips away with control and damage that saps your will fast. Against someone like Musayev, who loads up on every shot and starts to slow down when the early finish doesn’t happen, that’s huge.
Orolbai’s been in those fire fights. He’s taken damage and bounced back mid-round, and that resilience matters big here. Musayev’s best chance is to get him out early, plain and simple. But if Orolbai survives that wave—and based on what we’ve seen, he can—he’s going to flip the script. Musayev starts getting dragged into deep water, gets grounded, and slowly broken down.
So yeah, this is a danger fight, no doubt. Orolbai’s margin for error early is razor thin. But the deeper it goes, the more it becomes his world. If he sticks to the game plan, stays smart in those 1st five minutes, and gets his hands on Musayev, he’s going to drown him. That’s why the pick is Orolbai. He’s got the tools, the IQ, and the cardio to survive the storm and make Musayev pay for not closing the show early.