Prediction: Morgan Charreire via Decision
This is a high-level matchup between two well-rounded, technical fighters who both possess the speed, accuracy, and grappling ability to be legitimate problems in the division. Both men can seamlessly blend their striking and grappling, making them dangerous in all areas. However, what ultimately separates them in this fight is their defensive awareness—specifically, their ability to avoid clean shots.
Wood is an aggressive, volume-based striker who thrives in high-paced exchanges. He’s fast, accurate, and has the technical ability to break down opponents with layered offense. His combinations flow naturally, and he doesn’t hesitate to let his hands go. But the biggest issue in his game is his complete lack of head movement when throwing. He often gets into exchanges with his chin upright, failing to incorporate slips or defensive resets in between combinations. This has cost him in the past—he’s been rocked and dropped multiple times in fights where he was otherwise in control, and despite this being a glaring flaw, he has yet to make any real adjustments. Against someone as sharp and patient as Charriere, that’s a major liability.
Charriere isn’t as much of a volume striker, but he’s extremely efficient. He picks his shots well, doesn’t overextend, and, most importantly, maintains strong defensive awareness at all times. His head movement, footwork, and overall positioning make him difficult to hit cleanly, and he’s far less likely to engage recklessly in exchanges the way Wood does. While Wood might be the busier fighter, Charriere’s ability to land the cleaner, more damaging shots while avoiding return fire will give him the edge over three rounds.
Wood may have success early just based on his pressure and work rate, but as the fight progresses, Charriere’s patience and shot selection will start to show. He’ll capitalize on the openings Wood leaves, tagging him with counter shots when he overcommits and avoiding most of Wood’s return fire with his movement. While Wood is tough and unlikely to go away, Charriere’s ability to land the more significant shots without taking as much damage in return will make the difference on the scorecards.
A decision win for Charriere is the most likely outcome—he won’t match Wood’s output, but his superior defense, shot selection, and overall efficiency will allow him to land the cleaner, more meaningful strikes throughout the fight.