Prediction: Jean Matsumoto via Decision
Jean Matsumoto is the side—but it’s not a layup. At all. The dude’s clearly got the more complete striking arsenal. Kicks, punches in combination, clean mechanics, solid shot selection—it’s all there. He’s fluid when he gets going. But the issue is how he gets going. Matsumoto’s lack of offensive footwork is a real concern here. He doesn’t cut off the cage, he doesn’t enter on angles, and he tends to stand right in the zone just long enough for someone like Miles Johns to tee off.
And when Johns lets it fly, it’s mostly that right hand—but it’s a problem. That shot is timed well, thrown with bad intentions, and has been a real equalizer for him throughout his UFC run. That said, the reason we’re leaning Matsumoto is because Johns is kinda one-dimensional. He’s banking on you walking into his power. Outside of that right hand, there’s not much behind it. He doesn’t throw in volume, doesn’t build combos, and you can start to get reads on him as the fight goes on—especially if you stay composed and force him to show his hand early.
Grappling-wise, this one feels like a wash. Johns has solid wrestling and strong top control, but Matsumoto’s defensive grappling is slick. He’s hard to hold down, he doesn’t panic, and even when taken down, he makes you work for every second of control. That’s a big deal because it means the margins are going to come down to what happens on the feet—and that’s where Matsumoto’s variety gives him the edge. Even if he’s a bit too stationary at times, he’s still offering more offensively.