Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili inside the distance
This is one of the easiest picks on the card, and the fact that Merab is hovering around a -300 is honestly wild. They already fought. We saw what happened. It wasn’t just a win—it was domination. That first meeting looked like two guys from different tiers of MMA, and somehow, the odds still reflect more hope in the hype than skill. It’s the clearest example of stardom being valued over greatness, and Merab is the kind of fighter who thrives off flipping that script.
Let’s not overcomplicate it—Merab breaks people. His pace is hell. It’s not just the takedown numbers, it’s the relentless pressure, the ability to chain wrestle endlessly, and the cardio that somehow gets better as the fight goes on. Nobody matches that pace. And when people try? They drown. His striking? Constantly improving. It’s not flashy, but it’s effective—sharp enough to back you up and put you right where he wants you. Every jab, every kick, every overhand is just bait to make you think while he’s lining up the next level change. It’s not technical elegance—it’s chaos with purpose.
Now when you flip it to O’Malley, you’re looking at a guy who absolutely needs comfort to thrive. When he’s flowing, when he’s setting the rhythm, when he’s in control of distance—yeah, he’s dangerous. His timing, his sniper accuracy, the way he picks apart guys from the outside, it’s all high-level. But when you introduce the threat of the takedown, when he has to think about what’s coming under his strikes, his entire game changes. He stops leading. He starts waiting. He goes from artist to over-calculator, trying to find the perfect counter instead of just being the striker he is.
And that’s exactly what Merab exposed. Sean didn’t look like the champ. He looked like a guy trying not to get rag-dolled. He was constantly reacting, not dictating, and Merab just ran him over. Strength-wise? Not even close. Sean couldn’t stop the takedowns. And cardio-wise, it was a wrap by the second round. Merab didn’t even need to hit second gear. It was almost like he was toying with him, choosing whether to throw ground and pound or just burn clock and prove a point.
So this time around? It’s hard not to see Merab going even further. He’s got the blueprint, the tools, and the hunger—and with gold on the line, there’s zero chance he coasts. The control will be there. The takedowns will come in waves. And if Sean starts fading again, Merab’s not letting him off the hook. A finish feels not just possible—but likely.
Bottom line: Merab is a machine. Sean O’Malley is a star. But in this sport, greatness beats fame when the cage door closes. And if the lines are still sleeping on that? Cool. Easier cash.