Prediction: Matt Schnell via KO
Matt Schnell vs. Jimmy Flick feels like one of those matchups where the skill gap is pretty clear, and the only thing that really gives pause is Schnell’s tendency to self-destruct. On paper, this is Schnell’s fight all day. He’s faster, cleaner, sharper, and far more dangerous in the striking—Flick just isn’t on his level on the feet. If Schnell stays disciplined and doesn’t dive into chaos, a TKO win should be the most likely outcome.
Schnell’s striking has always been solid for the division—quick hands, tight combinations, and clean entries when he’s dialed in. He’s got legit speed and isn’t just volume for the sake of it. He throws with purpose and can hurt guys. If Flick hangs out at range for too long or tries to close the distance in predictable ways, Schnell is going to tag him clean—probably early and often.
Flick’s striking is nowhere near the same tier. He’s stiff, upright, and doesn’t have much in terms of fluid mechanics. His punches are often just there to create transitions—he’s not setting traps or throwing with real heat. That makes him incredibly vulnerable in open space, especially against someone like Schnell who can time counters and flurries. And unlike other grapplers who’ve slowly evolved their striking, Flick’s never really shown signs of bridging that gap.
What Flick does have is a dangerous ground game. He’s slick with his submissions, opportunistic, and very active once the fight hits the mat. He doesn’t need long to set something up if you give him a window. That’s the only real danger here. If Schnell gets careless or chooses to wrestle again—which he bafflingly did in his last fight—he could absolutely get caught. Flick doesn’t need to dominate position; he just needs one mistake and he’ll snatch a neck or a limb in a scramble. That’s always the threat with him. He’s not winning minutes—he’s hunting moments.
But realistically, if Schnell avoids that one path to danger and fights his fight, he should look more like a -800 favorite.