Prediction: Mateusz Rebecki via TKO
even though I give Duncan credit for his improvements, it’s hard to ignore the physical mismatch and the storm that’s coming his way—because Rebecki is an absolute tank, and I’m all over him in this one.
Rebecki’s striking aggression is next level. He doesn’t come in looking to point-fight or play a range game—he’s hunting from the jump, closing distance with insane pressure and letting his hands go with real violence behind them. He throws every shot like he’s trying to put a hole through his opponent, and the way he blends speed, power, and forward pressure makes it overwhelming fast. That kind of non-stop assault is the exact style that exposes the kind of flaws Duncan still has in his game.
Duncan’s gotten better, no doubt. His composure, timing, and overall discipline have leveled up since the regional days. But the issue here is he’s just outmatched physically. He’s slower, more upright, and doesn’t have the kind of footwork or head movement to deal with the kind of heat Rebecki brings. The moment Duncan starts backing up, which he will, Rebecki’s going to be in his face with flurries and body work, and Duncan’s not the type to respond well under that kind of fire.
This isn’t about technique or fight IQ—this is about surviving a pace and power level that Duncan just isn’t built to handle. Rebecki’s pressure breaks guys. He forces bad decisions with volume and violence, and even if you’re defending early, he’s still chipping away with every second. Duncan doesn’t have the speed, the movement, or the defensive layers to stay safe, and once Rebecki starts stacking damage, it’s gonna snowball quick.
I don’t see Duncan surviving the storm. Rebecki doesn’t give guys breathing room, and Duncan’s going to get caught in that blender before he even has a chance to get into his rhythm. Rebecki by destruction.