Prediction: Marcus Buchecha via Decision (I’m Betting Buday)
When the line opened, it made sense why people rushed to Buchecha. World-class jiu jitsu, freak athlete, massive guy who can fold you like laundry on the mat. You have to respect what Buchecha brings, especially in the first five minutes. If he gets you down early, it might be over. No one’s denying that.
But after that? This fight can get real close, real fast.
Buchecha hasn’t been in deep waters with someone like Buday yet. His record looks clean, but it’s all been against guys that either folded or got taken down without much of a fight. Buday isn’t that. He’s not flashy, he’s not fast, but he’s big, stubborn, and built for ugly fights. He walks you down, gets chest to chest, and leans on you forcing you to carry his weight. It’s not fun to deal with, and it’s even worse when you realize he’s not going away. That cage pressure, the clinch game, the constant weight—it’s a nightmare for someone like Buchecha who hasn’t proven he can swim when the tide turns.
If this gets out of the first, and Buchecha hasn’t found the neck or a dominant position, things can start to tilt. He’s made a career out of turning fights into grind fests and winning decisions just by making guys hate life in the clinch. And yeah, he’s not elite, but he’s a legit UFC vet who’s used to fighting guys with multiple weapons. Buchecha? He’s got one weapon. It’s a lethal one, no doubt—but at this level, being one-dimensional is a dangerous game.
That’s the whole point here. Buchecha probably wins, and I’m not mad at anyone picking him. But to be a 2 to 1 favorite over a big, durable, pressure-heavy heavyweight who’s not even near washed? That’s too much. The line has swung too far off potential. Buday at +170 is a live dog because he’s not easy to take down, not easy to control, and he’s not afraid of making this ugly.