Prediction: Shara Mogaomedov via Decision
Everyone sees Shara’s flash—his striking is next level, no doubt. He’s sharp, fast, deadly at range, and he’s got that swagger when he’s in rhythm. Whether it’s long kicks, sniper-like punches, or slicing elbows and knees when you crash in, he’s built to punish you on the feet. Early on, it’s probably going to look like he’s styling on Barriault.
But don’t count Barriault out just because he’s not as flashy. He’s a dog. He doesn’t care about your highlight reel. He’s going to walk forward, eat a few if he has to, and do everything he can to make it a gritty, high-paced, dirty fight. That’s where the test comes in for Shara. Because Barriault doesn’t slow down, and if he gets in close and starts clinching, pushing him to the cage, dragging him into those ugly moments—that’s where things could flip.
Shara’s never really been pushed like that in the UFC yet. Barriault’s style forces you to answer a question: do you have that bite-down gear when things don’t go clean? Because if Shara can’t find that early kill shot and Barriault keeps coming forward, keeps clinching, keeps forcing the pressure—it could get real interesting late. That pace wears on guys, especially ones who rely on range and clean striking rhythm.
That being said, I still think Magomedov’s footwork, speed, and overall skill level are going to be too much. He’s just a step ahead technically, and his ability to make people pay for coming in reckless is elite. But at +475? Barriault is way more live than the line suggests. He’s going to be in Shara’s face, making him work every second. Magomedov’s the pick, but Barriault’s style makes this way riskier than the odds tell you.