Prediction: Eduarda Moura via Decision
Yeah, she’s got the grappling advantage, no question. Her technique is solid, her transitions are clean, and she’s aggressive when she gets on top. But this ain’t some regional scene matchup anymore. Lauren Murphy might not be flashy, but she’s a tank—and that strength and toughness are something Moura probably hasn’t had to deal with yet. If Moura wants control time or takedowns, she’s gonna have to earn it.
On the feet, Moura’s probably still got a slight edge. She’s a bit cleaner, a bit more accurate, but it’s not like she’s levels above Murphy. Neither one is a sniper out there. It’s more about who can stay composed and pick their shots. Moura’s got that advantage by a slim margin, but she also slows down the longer it goes.
And that’s where things get interesting. Moura’s gas tank is the one thing that hasn’t been tested under real adversity. If this gets dragged into a grind, and Murphy stays standing and makes it ugly, we’re gonna see how deep Moura can dig. I’m not saying Murphy wins—but I’m definitely saying this thing feels like it’s going long.
So while +400 on Murphy looks like value on paper, I’m not planting that flag. The best bet here is the over 2.5 at -300. It’s a solid parlay piece. Murphy’s too tough to go out easy, and Moura doesn’t seem like she has the urgency to chase a finish unless it falls in her lap. Expect 15 minutes of clinch, grind, and moments—not mayhem.