Prediction: Matt Frevola via TKO
Both guys have legit power in their hands, both can grapple, and both have that “kill or be killed” style that makes every exchange dangerous. You can look at tape all day and try to find some small edge, but the truth is, this matchup feels like whoever lands first is walking away with the win.
Nelson’s got a little more variety in his striking. He uses kicks better, especially to set up his hands. When he’s mixing it up, he can look really sharp, and his physical strength helps him bully guys in the clinch or when he gets top position. But the downside is his defense. It’s just not there. When he gets tagged clean, he freezes up, and his recovery isn’t great. You can see it in a few of his fights: once he’s hurt, he’s not fighting through it, he’s just trying to survive.
Frevola’s got that same kind of danger to him, but with slightly tighter fundamentals. His footwork is a little more disciplined, he keeps his base set better during exchanges and this helps him land with more power and stay balanced when trading. His wrestling, too, has proven to hold up against higher level competition, and that could give him a small edge if he decides to mix it in. But the thing is, Frevola’s not the type to take the safe route. He’s a brawler at heart, and when the fight starts getting wild, he’s not backing down. That’s what makes him fun to watch, but also unpredictable to bet on.
Technically Frevola has the edge in footwork and wrestling, but that doesn’t mean much in a matchup like this where both guys have questionable defense and heavy hands. It’s not about who’s better. It’s about who lands clean first. That’s why instead of trying to pick a side, the best move here is just betting the under 2.5. Both of these guys hit too hard and get hit too often for this to go the distance.