Prediction: Kevin Holland via TKO Rd. 3
Holland’s length and accuracy just hit different. At welterweight, he’s a sniper. He doesn’t throw wild or waste motion—everything is sharp, straight, and on target. And that range? It’s a real weapon. It’s not just about reach—it’s the way he uses it. He’ll tag you clean with a straight right or a slick check hook while you’re still trying to figure out how to get inside. That hesitation he causes isn’t just because of his size—it’s because guys don’t know when it’s safe to go. They’re stuck between waiting too long and getting picked apart or rushing in and getting countered.
And that’s where Luque runs into a real problem. Luque’s a dog—he thrives in the fire, wants to crash forward, throw tight combinations, and break guys down in the pocket. But against someone like Holland who thrives at distance and sees everything coming? That style starts to work against him. The more Luque tries to close that gap, the more he’s walking into clean shots. And once he starts missing or getting tagged, he’s going to get frustrated. That frustration makes him even more aggressive, and that aggression feeds directly into Holland’s counter-striking. It’s a cycle, and Holland’s built to take advantage of it.
Defensively, Holland doesn’t get enough credit. Yeah, he used to be wild with the hands-down stuff, but now he’s way more disciplined. He rolls with punches, uses his long frame to cover distance fast, and knows how to shell up when things get tight. He doesn’t just absorb shots—he makes you miss and then makes you pay. Against Luque, who eats a lot of damage in almost every fight, that’s going to be dangerous.
And if you’re hoping Luque tries to switch it up and grapple? Good luck. Holland at welterweight has looked like a completely different beast in the grappling department. He’s hard to take down, hard to hold down, and when he decides to wrestle, he’s not bad at it either. So that safety net some fighters have against dangerous strikers? Luque doesn’t really have it here. Grappling’s not the escape route.
So yeah, it’s violence for sure—but it’s violence that favors Holland. He’s longer, sharper, harder to hit, and way more calculated than people give him credit for. If Luque can’t drag him into a phone booth and overwhelm him, he’s going to be swinging at air and eating shots in return.