Prediction: Toss Up
On the feet, Gastelum definitely has the edge. His striking is sharper, he’s got the speed advantage, and his footwork is going to be tough for Stoltzfus to deal with. Stoltzfus tends to just march forward looking to close the distance and drag guys into grappling exchanges, but that kind of straight-line pressure plays right into Kelvin’s ability to move in and out, land clean, and reset before Stoltzfus can get his hands on him.
But the danger for Gastelum is obvious. Historically, he’s struggled with bigger, stronger grapplers who know how to use their size and top pressure once they get him down. And that’s exactly what Stoltzfus brings to the table. If he’s able to close the gap and get Kelvin down, he’s the type of fighter who can make it ugly fast. He’s good at controlling position, using his weight, and just wearing guys out over time. That’s the exact blueprint that has given Gastelum problems in the past, and Stoltzfus has the skill set to replicate it.
So yeah, Gastelum’s footwork and striking should give him the upper hand standing, but if Stoltzfus can get his game going on the mat, it’s a completely different fight. This is why, even though for most the pick seems to think this is an easy pick for Gastelum, for me this is not an easy prediction.