Prediction: Kayla Harrison via Decision
Kayla Harrison is the rightful favorite against Julianna Peña—but let’s be real, the moneyline is mad disrespectful. Peña is not some random layup being served to the newcomer. This is a former champion who’s been in deep waters, upset legends, and has made a career off being grittier and tougher than people expect. And yet, she’s being priced like a complete afterthought. That’s wild.
Now, stylistically, yeah—this fight is probably going to the ground. Both these women thrive when it gets physical. They’ve both leaned on grappling to dominate opponents and drag them into places they don’t want to be. That’s why Kayla opened as the favorite. Her judo background isn’t just elite—it’s Olympic gold medal level. When she wants the fight on the mat, she finds creative, explosive ways to get it there. It’s not just your standard double leg—she trips, she throws, she manipulates balance. Peña’s not going to see a lot of those entries coming because nobody she’s fought moves like Kayla.
But don’t act like Peña is some slouch on the ground. She’s strong in the clinch, scrambles hard, and has experience fighting world-class grapplers. On top of that, she’s got that weird, stubborn cardio that doesn’t fade. Over five rounds, she just keeps pressing. So even if Kayla controls her early, there’s a real chance Peña starts to flip the momentum in the championship rounds. She’s built for ugly, drawn-out fights. If this becomes more of a grind than a showcase, that gap between them starts to shrink.
And on the feet? Advantage Peña. Neither of them are slick strikers, but Peña’s at least throwing with purpose. She’s tighter, more committed, and willing to sit down on her punches. Kayla’s striking still looks like something she has to do, not something she wants to do. She’ll throw just to set up the takedown, but if those entries start getting stuffed or she gets tired, it’s going to look real uncomfortable. You can’t coast for five rounds with sloppy hands against someone like Peña—she’s not going to give you space to breathe.
So yeah, Kayla should win. She’s likely got three strong rounds in her where she can hit throws, get top position, and smother Peña before things get dicey. But five rounds is a long time to hold down someone as gritty and stubborn as Julianna Peña. If Kayla slows down even a little, things could turn quick. That’s why a finish might not come—Peña’s too damn tough and experienced.
The smart pick? Kayla Harrison via decision. It’s the outcome that aligns with her control-heavy style and Peña’s cardio and durability. Especially with the fight heavily juiced to not go the distance, betting decision at a better number is sneaky sharp. But don’t get it twisted—the disrespect toward Peña in the odds isn’t justified.