Prediction: Joaquin Buckley via TKO
Let’s start with Buckley. Since dropping to 170, he’s looked like a dude who figured it out. Not just physically, but mentally too. You can see it in the way he carries himself on fight week, the focus in his eyes, and most importantly, the execution in the cage. He’s not just fighting with power anymore—he’s fighting with purpose. Every fight, he’s showing improvements. You see the work. His footwork is clean, and the dude’s constantly cutting angles—even mid-combo. That’s a huge deal. He’s not just throwing heat, he’s making reads in real time and switching up the target, which is a nightmare for any opponent. That kind of movement and adaptability can drown someone who’s stuck in old habits. Which brings us to Usman.
Now don’t get it twisted—Usman is a legend. A former champion who was one title defense away from tying Georges St-Pierre. He ruled with dominance, broke guys with pressure, and made elite fighters look mid. But that version of Usman? That guy might be gone. Since losing the belt, the vibe’s changed. He’s already doing analyst work, red carpet events, business ventures. It’s clear the man is building life after fighting. And that’s great for him—but not great if you’re trying to stay sharp in a division that’s evolving fast. Especially when you’re facing a savage like Buckley, who’s locked in like he’s still chasing that first contract.
Stylistically, Usman’s wrestling is still his biggest threat. If he wants to win, he has to lean on it. Because let’s be real—his striking? It’s always been functional, but not refined. He got away with a stiff jab, a tight high guard, and forward pressure. But that stuff worked because opponents were scared of the takedown. And even then, there were holes—he’s hittable, predictable in his entries, and doesn’t deal well with movement or angles. Against Buckley, that’s a problem. Joaquin’s the type of striker who punishes you for being a beat behind. You can’t stand in front of him with a basic 1-2 and expect him to freeze.
And here’s the thing: you can’t fake the grind at this level. Buckley is living in the gym. Usman? He’s already halfway out the door. You can’t give 60% prep and expect to beat a guy giving 110%. Not in this sport. Not in 2025.
So yeah, the name value screams Usman, but if you’re really watching the film, really following the evolution—Buckley is the side. Not because he’s the better fighter on paper, but because he’s the one still climbing while Usman’s already thinking about his next chapter. Timing’s everything in MMA, and this is Buckley’s moment.