Prediction: Julian Erosa (Value on Elkins)
This is one of those fights where Erosa being the favorite makes sense on paper, largely due to his size, range, and activity on the feet—but when you look at the styles and how they clash, this is absolutely a dog or pass situation, especially with Elkins sitting around +310.
Erosa has a very clear path to victory: stay long, use his kicks and volume to keep Elkins at bay, and avoid getting sucked into Elkins’ world of clinch and scramble-heavy chaos. And that’s easier said than done. Erosa’s striking looks sharp when he’s dictating the terms, but historically, when opponents push a grind-heavy pace or make it ugly, his defense breaks down.
Elkins is built for that kind of fight. His striking is very open—he’s hittable, slow, and counterable—but he doesn’t go away. The key with Elkins isn’t his technique, it’s his ability to absorb, keep coming forward, and extend exchanges until he finds the right angle to shoot. His wrestling isn’t just clean double-legs off the center line—it’s pressure, transitions, and never-ending scrambles. And that’s where this matchup starts to feel a lot closer than the odds suggest.
The blueprint to beat Elkins has always been one of two things: either be a very clean striker who can land damage at range and move without getting sucked into the brawl, or be physically dominant enough to outmuscle him in the clinch and on the mat. Erosa doesn’t quite check either of those boxes. He has the length and volume, but his footwork can be sloppy and his defensive wrestling has shown cracks before. He’s also not some physical powerhouse who’s going to stop Elkins from chain-wrestling once he gets inside.
If Elkins can get this fight into the kind of grind he thrives in—where the striking is messy, the transitions are constant, and it’s about pace over precision—he has a real shot at dragging Erosa into deep waters and stealing rounds with control and mat returns. For a guy with Elkins’ cardio, toughness, and scrambling ability, +310 is absolutely worth a look. It’s not a confident play on skill—it’s a value play on durability and pressure.