Prediction: Julia Polastri (Winner)
Julia Polastri vs. Lupita Godinez is a fight where Polastri presents serious value, especially at a dog price of +185. While Godinez has always been a strong wrestler for this division, she’s going up against one of the physically stronger women at strawweight, meaning takedowns won’t come as easily as they usually do. Polastri’s strength and balance in the clinch will force Godinez to work much harder for her grappling success, which could wear on her as the fight progresses.
On the feet, Godinez has made clear improvements, but her striking is still basic. She throws straight punches down the center line, which is effective but nothing that will overwhelm an opponent with solid defense. She doesn’t have the best guard or head movement, and while her footwork is decent, she isn’t great at cutting angles or setting up unpredictable attacks. Against someone like Polastri, who thrives on combination striking and switches up her angles, this could be a major problem.
Polastri’s striking is fundamentally sound and carries real power because of how well she plants her feet when throwing. She isn’t a one-and-done striker—she’s constantly putting together combinations and mixing up her targets, making it difficult for opponents to get a read on her. With her ability to take a shot and keep moving forward, she’ll be a tough matchup for Godinez, especially if she can keep the fight standing.
If Polastri can stuff early takedowns and make Godinez work harder than usual, the momentum will start shifting in her favor. Godinez has had success bullying opponents with her strength, but against someone who won’t be easy to overpower, she’ll have to rely on more than just wrestling. If she can’t consistently get the fight to the mat, she’ll be stuck striking with someone who has the advantage in variety, volume, and durability.