Prediction: Almabayev via Decision
Almabayev doesn’t need to win a striking battle. He just needs to use his movement, his IQ, and that calm, measured tempo to force Ochoa into bad spots. His footwork isn’t just defensive—it’s strategic. He glides in and out, sets his feet with purpose, and never stays on the center line longer than he needs to. That means even when Ochoa is letting his hands go, Almabayev’s not just covering up—he’s already plotting his angle to the hips.
And once Almabayev gets to your hips? It’s a wrap. He stacks takedowns, controls with intent, and doesn’t give up dominant position hunting for a finish unless it’s clean. Even if Ochoa gets up once or twice, the chain wrestling and top pressure just doesn’t let you breathe. You spend half the round trying to stand, the other half trying to stop the next shot. And that kind of pace, that kind of relentless grind, is exactly what separates Almabayev.
Cardio-wise, Almabayev has proven he can do this for a full 15 minutes without a drop-off. Ochoa might be dangerous early, but danger doesn’t win minutes, and when Almabayev’s grinding pace kicks in, it becomes a test Ochoa hasn’t faced yet. There’s no question Ochoa has an edge on the feet in terms of raw firepower, but Almabayev strikes on his own terms. He’ll make sure the exchanges happen when he wants them to—off breaks, after level changes, when Ochoa’s not balanced. He’s not going to play Ochoa’s game for even a second.
At the end of the day, Almabayev is the side here because he controls the phase that matters most—wrestling. And in a fight where one guy has a clear path to control, position, and pace, the flash just isn’t enough unless it lands clean. And against Almabayev, clean shots are rare.