Prediction: Joe Pyfer via Submission
On the feet, Pyfer will hold a noticeable power advantage, and early in the fight, that power will be a major factor. Gastelum has a legendary chin, but he is hittable and tends to get caught clean in exchanges. Pyfer’s ability to land with authority in the opening rounds will keep Gastelum honest and make him hesitant to commit fully to his striking. However, if the fight stays standing for an extended period, Gastelum’s speed and volume will start to take over. He has the faster hands, better movement, and more refined boxing, which could allow him to pull ahead in longer striking exchanges.
The real difference-maker in this fight is Pyfer’s grappling. Gastelum has always struggled against physically stronger grapplers, often looking helpless when he’s taken down and controlled. Fighters like Chris Weidman, Robert Whittaker, and Sean Brady have all exploited this weakness, and Pyfer has the tools to do the same. His size, strength, and grappling ability give him a clear path to dominating Gastelum on the mat.
Pyfer is not just a strong wrestler—he’s also an aggressive submission threat who understands how to capitalize on positional dominance. If he gets Gastelum to the ground, he will have a massive advantage in control and submission setups. Gastelum has shown a tendency to give up bad positions when forced to grapple, and Pyfer will be quick to capitalize on any opening.
Expect Pyfer to use his striking early to keep Gastelum honest, then look for an opportunity to change levels and get the fight to the ground. Once he establishes control, his size and strength will overwhelm Gastelum, leading to a submission finish.