Prediction: Toss Up (Lean Gurule)
Aguilar has all the tools to win. He’s strong in the grappling, he’s got legit power in his hands, and when he’s on, he can rack up control time or create big moments that swing rounds. The problem is he’s got this bad habit of making huge mistakes. On the feet, he’ll take wild, looping swings that leave him open, and in the grappling, he’ll forget the little details that either cost him dominant positions or stop him from really locking them down. That’s why it’s so hard to trust him even when you know what he’s capable of.
Gurule, on the other hand, is smoother. He flows on the feet, works with high volume, and he’s not easy to hold down. The moment a grappling exchange starts, he reacts instantly and fights to scramble back up, which makes it tough for someone like Aguilar to just sit on top of him. On the feet, Gurule’s activity and rhythm can really rack up points and make Aguilar chase. The issue for him, though, is that he doesn’t always set up his shots and his defense isn’t airtight. So basically he’ll stay exposed to the danger that is Aguilar’s power.
Stylistically, this should be Gurule’s fight. He’s the more consistent guy, he flows better, and he’s harder to control. But when you factor in Aguilar’s raw power and the fact that he can flip the fight with one moment or dominate stretches of control if he tightens up his mistakes, it’s tough to call.