Prediction: Ion Cutelaba via Decision
Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba is a classic matchup of range striker vs pressure brawler-wrestler, and stylistically it’s set up to be a fight where the tides can turn hard after the first round. Bukauskas will likely have the early success—he’s tall, long, and technical. His footwork is crisp, and when he’s fresh, he’s very good at managing distance, staying just outside of his opponent’s range, and picking his shots. Against someone like Cutelaba, who comes forward like a tank with forward pressure and aggression, that movement and range management will be key early.
Ion’s game is built around pressure and attrition. He’s not the most technical striker, but he carries real power and throws with bad intentions when he gets guys on the cage or in the pocket. More importantly, when his opponents slow down, that’s when his wrestling comes into play. He doesn’t shoot early—he waits until your feet are dead and your hips are heavy, then times a shot or a body lock to drag you down and tax your energy bar even more. Bukauskas has shown vulnerabilities there before. He can be taken down and held, and even if he pops back up, it forces him to work harder—which further depletes his cardio and sharpness.
As the second round begins, look for Cutelaba to close distance more effectively. With Bukauskas slowing, the angles get flatter and easier to read. That’s when Cutelaba will start landing clean—big hooks, overhands, maybe even a well-timed uppercut as Bukauskas tries to circle out sluggishly. Once he smells blood, he’s one of the more aggressive finishers in the division. And Bukauskas does not react well when hurt. He shells up, panics, and becomes a sitting duck, which plays right into Ion’s wheelhouse. That flurry into TKO is very plausible if the fight goes that way.