Prediction: Ian Garry Inside the Distance
Ian Garry vs. Carlos Prates is a fascinating matchup between two technically sharp, rising welterweights, but when you break it down stylistically and situationally, Ian Garry sitting around -130 is loaded with value. This is Prates’ first time stepping into deep waters against a high-level opponent with layers to his game, and while Prates is dangerous, Garry is the more complete, proven fighter with a much higher ceiling in terms of adaptability and long-term execution.
Prates made a statement against Li Jingliang, no doubt. That was his level-up moment. He showed much more poise and maturity in his striking—clean footwork, improved shot selection, and a more composed approach overall. His pressure has always been a big part of his success. He builds momentum well when he’s the one walking forward, and he’s accurate with his strikes, especially when he gets the timing down. But what hasn’t been tested yet is how he deals with someone who doesn’t just stand there and let him apply pressure uninterrupted.
That’s where Ian Garry shines. Garry doesn’t crack under pressure. In fact, he thrives in fights where his opponent comes forward aggressively because that’s where his defensive footwork, range management, and high fight IQ come into play. He’s calm, composed, and has a knack for making in-fight adjustments that most fighters at his level don’t make. His movement allows him to defuse pressure, and he forces opponents to reach—setting them up for counters or level changes when they get too eager.
And that’s where the biggest difference shows up: Garry’s grappling. We’re starting to see the evolution of his jiu-jitsu, and it was on full display in his last fight. Not only did he look comfortable in grappling exchanges, but he also had the cardio to mix it in without losing his edge over the course of the fight. That’s going to be a major problem for Prates, who hasn’t shown that level of depth in his grappling or takedown defense. Garry doesn’t need to be a chain wrestler—he just needs to threaten enough to keep Prates honest and prevent him from settling into that pressuring, volume-heavy rhythm he likes.
The key here is how Garry controls the tempo. Over 15 or even 25 minutes, Garry can slow the fight down when needed, explode when he sees openings, and lean on his superior movement and grappling to create layers Prates hasn’t dealt with yet. Prates is live because of his striking, especially early—but Garry’s ability to stay composed, use his jab and front kicks to manage range, and mix in level changes will keep him in control more often than not.
Unless Garry gets lazy defensively or disrespects the power coming back at him, this is a fight that he should be able to dominate with his toolkit. He’s simply fought the better guys, shown more growth between fights, and has more ways to win. At -130, with his experience, composure, and clear edge in grappling and adjustment-making, Garry is 100% the side to be on.