Prediction: Evan Elder inside the distance
Evan Elder vs. Gauge Young is a classic case of one fighter already fighting at a near UFC-finished product level versus a promising prospect who just isn’t quite there yet. That’s why Elder inside the distance is the read—he’s simply a level above Young in every major phase, and the kind of fighter who applies pressure with real purpose behind everything he throws.
Elder’s game is built on constant movement, but not the kind that’s just meant to stay elusive—his movement is always purposeful. He’s sliding in and out of range with timing, not just rhythm, and his entries are clean. When he throws, it’s with serious intent—he’s not pitter-pattering his way through exchanges. He’s trying to hurt guys. He’s got solid pop in his hands, but it’s the sharpness and volume that does most of the damage. He sets a pace that makes guys start to shell up or swing back wild, and that’s where he starts breaking them down.
On the ground, Elder’s also the superior grappler. His wrestling entries are clean, and he blends it well with his striking, often using his hands to open up takedown opportunities when opponents start biting on the pressure. Once he’s on top, he’s not just holding position—he’s landing damage and looking to finish. He’s the type of fighter who doesn’t waste time when he smells an opening, whether it’s a submission or a ground-and-pound opportunity.
Young’s toughness might let him hang around for a bit, but if he can’t shore up his defense mid-fight, Elder will overwhelm him. He’s going to be a step ahead in the striking, landing with more power and frequency, and once that starts forcing Young into reactive defense, the takedowns and ground work open up. Elder doesn’t need a specific path to victory here—he can win this standing, he can win it in the clinch, or he can dominate on top. And when you’ve got that many options against a guy with as many defensive leaks as Young, the finish becomes more and more likely the longer it goes.
It’s not that Young can’t compete at this level eventually—he just needs time to tighten up the defense and smooth out the decision-making. Elder, on the other hand, is already there and sharpening each time out. This is his fight to lose, and if he fights anywhere near his potential, he gets Young out of there inside the distance.