Prediction: Nikolay Veretennikov via Decision
Let’s keep it real—Prado’s size did a lot of the work for him at lightweight. He was physical, strong, and explosive for that division, but now at welterweight, all that natural size advantage? Gone. This doesn’t feel like a guy who grew into a new weight class—it feels like someone who just didn’t want to cut anymore. He never looked too big for 155, so moving up without a clear physical edge just means he’s giving up the best tool he had.
Veretennikov, on the other hand, is built for welterweight. He’s clean, tight, and fights like someone who knows exactly what works at this level. His jab is sharp, he controls distance well, and he doesn’t get reckless chasing finishes. Meanwhile, Prado swings like he’s trying to win a bar fight—wide, looping shots that are easy to see coming. That might catch some low level lightweights by surprise, but at 170? That stuff gets you countered.
And that’s the thing—Veretennikov’s hands are legit. He’s got real power, but it’s the way he sets it up that separates him. He sticks behind the jab, keeps his shape, and makes you pay for every mistake. Against a guy like Prado who telegraphs everything? That’s a recipe for clean, technical violence.
Now sure, if Prado was a slick grappler who could test Veretennikov in the one area where he’s shown weakness, there’d be a path. But he’s not. Veretennikov’s only real struggles have been against strong grapplers with elite top control—and that’s not Prado’s game. He’s not going to win this with some slick takedown and ground transition. He’s going to try to bomb away, and that’s exactly what Nikolay’s built to handle.
Bottom line—basics beat power when power isn’t set up properly. And when that power doesn’t even carry up a division, you’re left hoping for a lucky moment. Veretennikov is disciplined, well-suited for 170, and knows how to capitalize on a guy who’s all force, no finesse. This should be his fight to win.