Prediction: Rivzan Kuniev via TKO
Curtis Blaydes vs Rizvan Kuniev is one of those matchups where the name value doesn’t tell the whole story. Blaydes is the established guy with the big UFC wins and top-level wrestling résumé—but honestly, this version of Blaydes just isn’t the same dude that bulldozed guys with takedowns and pressure a few years ago. And when you add in the dog odds on Kuniev? This becomes a must-play underdog shot.
Let’s start with Blaydes. He’s taken a lot of damage lately, and it’s not just bad luck—it’s the result of how he’s been fighting. His striking has 100% improved, credit to his coaches, but somewhere along the way he started falling in love with it. Instead of using his hands to set up takedowns, he’s started using his wrestling as a backup plan, and that’s gotten him slept by some of the heaviest hitters in the division. The footwork isn’t sharp anymore, he doesn’t move the same, and his defensive guard is basically non-existent. The dude still has pop, but he’s way more hittable now—and when you get hit clean at heavyweight, there’s no forgiveness.
Now, Rizvan Kuniev didn’t blow anyone away in his last fight. But if you look past that performance and check how he showed up for this one—leaner, sharper, clearly locked in—it feels like we’re about to see the Kuniev that dominated in Eagle FC and PFL. That version of Kuniev has all the tools to give Blaydes problems. His wrestling is legit. He might not shoot doubles like Blaydes, but in the clinch and in scrambles, he’s just as strong and just as savvy. Even when he gets tired, he keeps coming. He doesn’t let fatigue take away his pace or pressure—he just bites down and keeps grinding.
But here’s the real key: power in tight. Kuniev doesn’t need range to hurt you—he’s most dangerous when he’s glued to you in the clinch. He throws short shots with real power, knees to the body, uppercuts off the break. And that’s exactly where Blaydes is most vulnerable. He’s not good at defending in those tight exchanges, and lately, when he gets hit clean, he reacts stiff or flat-out gets hurt. Kuniev’s gonna be right in that range all fight.
So while Blaydes might be the bigger name and the guy with more UFC experience, this is a very winnable fight for Kuniev. If he stays in Blaydes’ face, keeps the pressure on, and forces those clinch exchanges, the damage is going to add up quick. And with Blaydes’ current trend of slowing footwork and sketchy defense, one clean shot could change everything.
This isn’t just a gut feeling—this is a stylistic spot. Kuniev at dog odds is value. He’s hungry, clearly prepared, and fighting someone who’s been fading under the lights.