Prediction: Allan Nascimento via Submission
Durden has relentless takedowns and he’s aggressive in transitions. But that same aggression is exactly what gets him in trouble against high level submission artists, and Nascimento is elite in that department. Nascimento’s jiu-jitsu isn’t just good, it’s world class. His ability to create angles and snatch submissions in scrambles is among the best in the flyweight division. The moment Durden starts forcing his wrestling, those neck exposed entries and sloppy transitions become prime targets for any chokes Nascimento finds available.
Nascimento’s top control is another major difference maker. Once he gets a dominant position, he floats with pressure, constantly advancing and forcing his opponent to defend multiple threats at once. In his last few wins, his control time has been exceptional, often spending over half the round in dominant positions while constantly threatening submissions. Durden, for all his wrestling credentials, hasn’t shown the same level of positional awareness once fights hit the mat. He’s explosive, yes, but he tends to rush his transitions and gives up space when trying to posture or scramble.
On the feet, the gap isn’t massive, but the edges still lean toward Nascimento. He’s not flashy. He sticks to linear strikes, keeps his head off center, and picks his moments carefully. He doesn’t lead recklessly, which is key here because Durden’s main striking weapon is that counter right hand. Durden likes to swing big when opponents commit forward, but Nascimento won’t give him that chance. He’ll use straight punches, low kicks, and feints just to get Durden biting, then time level changes or force reactive shots that lead directly into grappling exchanges. Once Durden is shooting under pressure instead of dictating his entries, he becomes predictable and that’s where Nascimento capitalizes.