Prediction: Brandon Moreno (winner)
Moreno is one of the best flyweights in the world when he’s locked in. He can fight effectively in all areas—his boxing is crisp, his counterpunching is sharp, his grappling is elite, and his durability allows him to walk through adversity if needed. He’s also highly adaptive, making in-fight adjustments better than most in the division.
The key to this matchup is Erceg’s footwork. He’s fast, sharp, and uses his movement to frustrate opponents, constantly angling off and circling away to avoid prolonged exchanges. The issue is that this won’t work against someone like Moreno. Moreno doesn’t recklessly chase opponents—he moves forward with calculated pressure, keeping his eyes locked on his target and only engaging when he’s at the right striking range. His ability to maintain range discipline means Erceg won’t be able to simply stick-and-move his way to victory
Moreno also has the speed advantage and excellent defensive awareness, which will force Erceg into uncomfortable positions. When Erceg is forced to lead exchanges, he has a habit of staying in the pocket too long and leaving his chin exposed. Against a sharp counterpuncher like Moreno, this is a dangerous flaw. Expect Moreno to take advantage of these mistakes, landing clean counter shots that score points while avoiding damage.Erceg is tough and skilled enough to keep himself in the fight, but he’s likely going to be a step behind in most areas. Moreno’s pressure, countering ability, and superior overall skill set should allow him to control the pace and tempo of the fight. Unless Moreno finds an opportunity for a submission or a late finish, this fight will likely go the distance with Moreno winning a clear decision.