Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski via Decision
Lopes has captured attention with highlight finishes and raw power, and while he’s absolutely dangerous, particularly early, Volkanovski is the rightful favorite for a reason. This fight has all the markers of a reality check for Lopes, much like Alex Pereira’s first loss to a fully well-rounded fighter who could fight smart, manage risk, and exploit holes that pure power can’t hide forever.
Lopes’ biggest weapon by far is his power. Whether it’s his hands on the feet or squeezing through transitions on the ground, his strength carries him through bad positions and creates the moments that swing fights in his favor. It’s violent and it’s effective, but it’s also his crutch. He relies on physicality more than process, and that’s a slippery slope against someone like Volkanovski, who doesn’t give you many free windows to get that off. Lopes is incredibly slick in certain scrambles, and his explosiveness makes him a real threat to finish anyone early. But the deeper the fight goes, the more those raw weapons fade—especially against a guy who doesn’t slow down and fights with built-in discipline and adaptation.
Volkanovski is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the sport. Not just the division—the entire game. He can strike, wrestle, grapple, and more importantly, blend it all at a pace that breaks people. He’s had trouble lately, sure, but those losses came up in weight against a world-class killer in Islam Makhachev and a short notice headkick from Topuria, who’s looking like a future long-term champ himself. Lopes is dangerous, but he’s not that caliber of complete fighter. Not yet.
What Volkanovski brings that completely shifts this matchup is his timing, his reads, and the way he creates offense. He never gives you the same look twice. He feints constantly, breaks his own rhythm, and takes angles that force his opponents to reset over and over. That not only keeps them from building momentum, but it also taxes their cardio, mentally and physically. Lopes is powerful, but he’s not used to being forced to think this much. If he doesn’t get Volkanovski out of there early—and that’s a tall task against a guy who’s shown he can eat bombs and recover—then he’ll start falling behind quickly.
The narrative around fighters Volkanovski’s age in title fights, especially against younger, faster rising stars, is real—but context matters. Volkanovski hasn’t looked like a fighter on the verge of collapse. He’s still fast, still sharp, and still impossible to hold down or bully in most positions. Lopes will have some early moments. He’s too dangerous not to. But Volkanovski’s ability to weather storms, read tendencies, and keep turning up the pace as his opponent fades makes this feel like the classic vet-vs-hammer matchup where the hype gets cooled off.
Lopes’ best chance is the first 7–8 minutes. But once Volkanovski finds the rhythm, starts digging into the body, taking away the legs, mixing in reactive takedowns or clinch breaks, and keeping Lopes biting on faints and swinging at air, the fight starts to feel one-sided. And the moment Lopes slows just a bit, Volkanovski will bury him in output, angles, and pressure he hasn’t felt before. That’s why despite all the age stats and streaks, Volkanovski is the justified favorite. He’s the high-level fighter who exposes what Lopes hasn’t had to show yet: answers to questions that go beyond raw power.