Prediction: Costa via TKO
Costa fights with that kind of mean streak you want to see. The aggression is nonstop, and the foundation of his whole game is those brutal leg kicks. They’re not just range finders either. He’s throwing them with the intent to chop you down, and when you’ve got that kind of weapon early, it forces opponents to react. Those kicks will soften Coria up, make him slower, and that’s what opens the door for Costa’s hands. And when Costa lets the hands go, it’s explosive. He doesn’t need a ton of shots to change the fight.
Now, he’s not without flaws. Costa’s head movement is basically an afterthought, and that’s where Coria has his window. Coria’s clean offensively—when he throws, it’s never just one shot. He’s flowing combinations, he’s sharp technically, and if he can catch Costa in the pocket, he’s gonna land. The problem is, to get to that rhythm, Coria has to survive Costa’s power and that leg kick barrage first. And that’s the way I see it: this isn’t about Costa having to figure out Coria’s offense, it’s about Coria trying to make it past Costa’s sheer firepower.
If Coria somehow walks through the storm and keeps his volume going, he’ll have moments. But with how devastating Costa’s kicks are and how quickly he can flip the switch with his hands, I think the fight tilts in his favor.