Prediction: Talita Alencar via Decision
Carnelossi’s game is built around bullying. She wants to walk you down, load up on power hooks, and mix in clinch pressure, but that approach collapses when her opponent can level change and turn that aggression into easy takedown entries.
Carnelossi’s takedown defense has never been reliable. She only defends about 14% of takedowns, and worse, when she does get taken down, she has shown no ability to be urgent from the bottom. Alencar’s control from top position is suffocating. Her positional awareness is elite, and once she passes guard, she’s three steps ahead. Her grappling metrics are ridiculous for someone this early in her MMA career and lands nearly every takedown she is commited to.
What makes this matchup particularly lopsided is that Carnelossi’s best weapon, her forward movement, actually accelerates her own downfall here. The moment she starts marching forward and overextending with her power shots, she opens up her hips for Alencar to shoot under. Alencar doesn’t need to strike much to win this; she just needs to bait Carnelossi into coming forward. Once it hits the mat, it’s a wrap.