Prediction: Tom Nolan via Decision
The difference-maker for me is Nolan’s aggression. He doesn’t just wait for the perfect shot. He brings the fight to you with real intent behind everything he throws. Campbell is slick and smart with his standup, but Nolan has that extra gear where he turns sharp striking into controlled chaos. He’s going to be the one pushing forward, making Campbell react instead of letting him dictate the flow. When you’ve got two guys this evenly matched in terms of technical ability, being the aggressor matters.
Campbell does have the grappling advantage. If things get hairy, he can dip into that wrestling and change the look of the fight. That’s definitely something Nolan will need to be prepared for, especially later on if Campbell feels he’s getting edged on the feet. But the way I see it, Nolan’s cardio combined with that aggression is what tips the scale. He’s not just explosive for a round. He keeps the same level of pressure deep into the fight. That wears on opponents who like having space to operate.
So while Campbell’s wrestling safety net makes him dangerous if the fight gets close, Nolan’s pace and willingness to push the fight every second of the fifteen should be the difference.