Prediction: Max Holloway via TKO
Let’s be real: the first fight doesn’t even count in this context. Max was still green, hadn’t leveled up yet. The second fight? That’s the one people remember, and yeah, Dustin got the win—but context matters. Max was moving up to 155 for the first time with a 145 frame. He didn’t have the muscle or the mass for the weight yet—and even then, he was still in control for a lot of those exchanges. It was just those few devastating moments from Poirier—big power shots that rocked Max and stole the momentum. But what people forget is that even after those moments, Max kept coming. He poured it on so hard that Dustin didn’t want to strike anymore. He started clinching, started shooting—because that pace was getting to him.
Now we’ve got Max 2.0. A real lightweight. Bigger, stronger, and somehow even sharper than before. You can see the speed’s still there, but now the shots have more thump. The accuracy’s laser-like, and he doesn’t slow down. The volume that used to be overwhelming at 145? It’s even more dangerous now because he’s got the size and pace to match up against these lightweights.
Dustin is always dangerous early. The man throws with power, and if you give him a moment, he’ll take the whole fight. But that’s where the Under 4.5 comes in. Either Dustin finds another one of those bombs and finishes it early… or Max drowns him. Because the longer this goes, the faster Max gets. That pace doesn’t just break you physically—it messes with you mentally. He doesn’t stop, he doesn’t flinch, and he doesn’t give you time to breathe. And this time around, I don’t think Poirier’s going to be able to wrestle his way out of the fire
So yeah—this fight isn’t seeing the scorecards. Either Max breaks Poirier with volume and pace, or Dustin lands something nuclear. But Max is the pick. He’s got the gas, the durability, and now the body to match it. The revenge arc hits different when everything finally lines up.