Predictiion: Brendan Allen via Decision
This pick isn’t necessarily about who’s the better fighter on paper, but more about where they’re at right now. And that’s why I’m leaning toward Allen.
If this was 2022 Vettori, this wouldn’t even be a debate. That version of Marvin was a tank. Never out of shape, constantly leveling up whether he won or lost, and completely locked in on that championship mindset. He was damn near impossible to hurt, had one of the strongest wrestling bases in the division, and could push a pace with solid footwork that made him a nightmare to deal with. The only real way to beat him was to be a high-level movement guy—someone who could frustrate him and pick him apart at range. Brendan Allen isn’t that. He’s not some elusive sniper dancing around the outside—he’s a gritty, grappling-first, pressure fighter who wants to wear you down and take over.
But this isn’t 2022 anymore. This version of Vettori is coming off shoulder surgery, and that last performance? Easily one of the worst showings of his career. The pop wasn’t there, the footwork looked sluggish, and mentally, he didn’t seem like the same guy who used to be obsessed with breaking his opponent down. It wasn’t just that he lost—it was how he looked while doing it. And now he’s turning around pretty quick again, against a guy like Allen who’s hungry, active, and chasing gold.
Allen may not be as durable as Vettori and doesn’t have the same kind of wrestling defense, but he’s sharp when he smells an opportunity and has been looking like someone who’s finally putting all the pieces together. He doesn’t need to be flashy here—he just needs to test whether Vettori’s body is really back and if the mental drive is still there.
That’s the real question. Is Vettori healed? Is he still locked in like he used to be? Or is this another fight too soon, too rushed, and maybe too much pride driving it? I’m not confident enough to bet on Vettori just to find out if the old version is still alive. Until we see that guy again, Allen feels like the smarter lean.