Prediction: Ilia Topuria via KO
Here’s the thing about Ilia—his boxing is special, but not just because of how clean he punches. It’s the feet. The footwork is elite. He’s constantly adjusting, cutting angles, closing distance with sharp bursts, and then getting out before you even realize the exchange happened. That’s what makes him such a nightmare on the feet. You can’t just time him with a basic check hook or jab—his entries are tight and fast, and you need exceptional timing to even think about catching him clean.
And his size? That’s where the IQ really shines. He’s not towering over guys or just bullying them physically. He has to create the openings. He has to build his way into range, and he does it masterfully. Sometimes he forces the issue with raw pressure, but most of the time he’s baiting you, setting traps, cutting off your movement, and then exploding with pinpoint combos. The power is real, but it’s not just strength—it’s technique. It’s perfect mechanics and balance. When Topuria lands, it’s sharp, it’s violent, and it’s almost always clean.
Now let’s talk Charles Oliveira. The dude is chaos. He thrives in madness. He walks guys down, throws with zero fear, and leans heavily on the idea that he can either break you or drag you into a scramble and choke you. He’s got nasty power, but his biggest weapon has always been that no-fear, walk-you-down style. And it works—until it doesn’t.
Because Charles doesn’t move his head. He doesn’t check out of exchanges clean. He’s willing to get hit to land something big. And that’s fine when you’re fighting someone who breaks under pressure—but Topuria? He doesn’t break. He thrives in that kind of fight, except he does it smarter. He keeps his defense tight, rolls with shots, and makes you miss just enough to set up a counter that can end it all.
That’s the biggest reason for confidence in this pick—Charles is going to come forward. That’s who he is. He believes in his power so much that he’s always down to gamble on the idea that he can take yours better than you can take his. But this is the one matchup where that mindset backfires badly. Topuria’s defense is too sharp, his footwork too slick, and his counters too precise. Most important, Topuria will not need to find a way to close the distance if Charles comes forward like he always does.