Prediction Tagir Ulanbekov via Submission or Decision
Azat Maksum is a solid fighter, no doubt. Was undefeated for a reason, good movement, scrappy pace, and he’s constantly working — but this is where the run gets checked. Tagir Ulanbekov is just a level up. My pick is Ulanbekov with confidence, and honestly, it’s one of those matchups where the deeper you look, the more you realize he’s got Maksum beat everywhere.
On the feet, Maksum is active. He throws a lot, gives different looks, and tries to drown you in volume. But Ulanbekov isn’t the type to get overwhelmed by that. He stays calm, calculated, and when he lets his hands go — especially that fast, accurate left jab — it stings. He’s not out here throwing for highlight reels, he’s throwing to disrupt rhythm, to set traps, and to create windows for what he really wants to do: grapple.
And that’s where this fight tilts heavy in Tagir’s favor. Maksum might have decent wrestling defense against mid-tier guys, but Tagir’s shot timing is different. He doesn’t shoot just to shoot. When he commits, he’s already three moves ahead. He chains his takedowns together, he fights smart along the fence, and when he gets on top, it’s real control — not just lay and pray. He floats, he adjusts, and he doesn’t rush. That’s what separates high-level Dagestani grapplers from the rest: they suffocate you with patience.
Then there’s the submission threat. Tagir doesn’t hunt subs recklessly, but if the neck is there? It’s a wrap. He’s got one of the tightest chokes in the division, and if he locks one up on Maksum — who tends to leave his neck out when scrambling — that’s game over.
This isn’t about disrespecting Maksum. The guy can fight. But Ulanbekov is more precise, more dangerous, and way more composed. The gap in experience, fight IQ, and grappling depth is real, and that’s going to show once they get into the meat of the fight. Maksum might come out fast, but it won’t be long before Tagir slows the storm, takes the reins, and drowns him in efficiency.
High confidence on this one — Tagir Ulanbekov gets it done.