Prediction: Toss Up
Simon’s game is built for dominance. His wrestling is legit—relentless pressure, chain takedowns, strong top control, and he’s explosive enough to cover distance fast. His striking has come a long way too. It’s not flashy, but it works. He’s got sharp eyes in the pocket, really solid timing on counters, and he uses his hands primarily to set up the grappling exchanges. In a perfect world, he should be able to drown a guy like Jourdain with pressure, takedowns, and cage control.
But here’s the problem—he doesn’t always force it. There’s been a weird trend lately where Simon gets too hesitant after he gets touched. Not broken, but rattled. Like instead of digging in, he starts second-guessing, and then out comes the panic wrestling. He starts shooting from too far out, too obvious, and at this level, if your shots are telegraphed, you’re getting sprawled on or punished. Against someone like Jourdain, that’s a real issue.
Jourdain is a chaos engine. He feeds off momentum and pressure, and once he finds a rhythm, it’s a nightmare to deal with. He’s got that explosive, unpredictable style—darting in and out, flying knees, spinning stuff, and a gas tank that gets stronger the more he feels himself. The more success he has, the more volume he throws, and the more aggressive he becomes. If Simon starts to retreat or shoot lazy, that’s when Jourdain thrives.
And let’s not ignore what Jourdain’s been adding to his game—his defensive grappling has improved big time. He’s not easy to hold down, and if you give him even a little space or lose focus on your positioning, he’ll slap on a guillotine or scramble out and make you pay. Fighters who come in thinking they’ll dominate him on the mat without respect for his ground awareness are learning the hard way.
So yeah, Simon has the blueprint to win: wrestle, smother, grind. But if he gives Jourdain too much space, hesitates when he gets hit, or shoots without setting things up—Jourdain’s going to start heating up and make it ugly. This fight’s 50/50 because it comes down to execution.