Prediction: Patchy Mix via Decision
Patchy Mix is the rightful favorite—and there’s no debate there. The guy is a problem for anyone at 135. He’s long, awkward, and once he gets to your back, it’s almost always over. That rear naked choke is his weapon of choice, and he gets there so effortlessly it’s honestly scary. He doesn’t need to dominate rounds to win fights—he just needs one transition, one scramble, one moment—and he’s on you like a weighted blanket with venom. That’s why people are so high on him, and why his Bellator dominance is translating over into real hype for his UFC debut.
But the UFC didn’t give him an easy runway. Mario Bautista is not some random tune-up fight. There’s a reason they matched Mix up with him right away. Bautista’s got the kind of style that forces Mix to work hard for everything. He’s constantly moving, constantly angling, and he’s slick with how he manages distance. He’s not out there head-hunting—he’s breaking you down with jabs, kicks, and sharp entries, forcing you to reset over and over again. For someone like Mix who thrives on dictating the pace, that kind of footwork can be a nightmare early.
And even if Mix gets past that and closes the distance, Bautista’s defensive grappling is the real x-factor. He doesn’t just accept bottom position. He’s busy—posting, framing, shrimping, kicking off the hips—doing all the little things to create space and get back to his feet. That constant movement makes it hard to get clean transitions on him, and it’s the reason some elite grapplers haven’t been able to dominate him on the mat. And even though he sometimes leads with his head—yeah, not ideal—he’s got solid awareness with his front choke defense. Mix’s guillotines and front chokes won’t be easy money here.
That’s why this fight might end up being way grittier than people expect. Bautista’s going to ask real questions on the feet and in the scrambles. He’s going to frustrate Mix with movement and force him to shoot clean or risk eating shots trying to close the gap. But here’s the thing—Patchy doesn’t need a wide-open door. He just needs a crack. His game is built around making the most of tiny moments, and once he gets your back, it’s different. That’s where he’s most comfortable, where he does his best work, and where Bautista has to be perfect to survive.
So yeah, Mix is still the pick. Because his best path to victory just so happens to be what he’s elite at. He doesn’t need to win on the feet. He doesn’t need to win every round. He just needs to get to the back, and finish the fight like he always does. But don’t expect this to be some smooth-sailing showcase. Bautista’s too smart, too sharp, and too gritty to roll over. This is going to be a real test—and if Mix gets it done, it’ll prove even more than his record already has.