Prediction: Thomas Petersen (Winner)
Don’Tale Mayes vs Thomas Petersen is a quintessential low-level heavyweight matchup where skill gaps are obvious, but unpredictability looms large due to the natural chaos that comes with big men throwing leather. On paper, this is Petersen’s fight to lose. He has a very clear and exploitable path to victory through his wrestling, and Mayes has shown time and time again that when taken out of his comfort zone, he tends to shut down. But the big “if” comes from how long Petersen decides to entertain the striking, because while Mayes lacks consistency and polish, he still carries real power—and at this level, that can flip everything.
Petersen is a pure wrestler at heart. He’s strong in the clinch, has solid entries, and once he gets on top, he makes it count. He’s heavy, positional, and doesn’t rush his control. Against someone like Mayes, who’s struggled historically with defending takedowns against committed grapplers and has poor urgency off his back, that could be all Petersen needs. If this becomes a rinse-and-repeat takedown affair, Mayes likely won’t have the technical get-ups or the cardio to survive being drowned for 15 minutes. The danger only comes if Petersen gives him time and space to operate.
And that’s where Mayes has a window. His striking is crude and often looks like he’s sparring in molasses, but when he throws, he throws heavy. His right hand can do damage, and he’s not afraid to throw knees or uppercuts when opponents duck into range for shots. The real concern for Petersen is his striking defense—or really, the lack of it. He doesn’t move his head off the centerline, he doesn’t layer his entries with feints, and when he throws combinations, his chin is high and his hands drop. That’s not a sustainable style against anyone with real power, even at the lower tiers of heavyweight.
So yes, Petersen should win. He has the wrestling pedigree, the positional awareness, and the clearest path to a dominant decision or even a late finish. But heavyweight MMA has its own rules, and Petersen’s lack of striking defense makes this far from a guarantee. If he tries to trade for too long or gets caught leaning in without protection, Mayes could land something big and steal this outright.