Prediction: Michel Pereira via Decision
The prediction here is Pereira should get the job done based on the same things that have always made him difficult to deal with—his footwork, speed, and power—and unless Abus brings an unsustainable pace or leans on wrestling for three rounds, he’s going to find himself chasing shadows and getting picked apart.
Pereira’s footwork is the core of everything he does. He’s one of the most mobile guys in the division—constantly circling, bouncing in and out, and using lateral movement to frustrate opponents and create his own windows for explosive bursts. When he picks his spots and stays composed, his game is hard to deal with. He’s not just flashy anymore; he’s sharp. The wildman who used to gas out trying to be a human highlight reel has become a much more measured, dangerous version of himself. He still carries knockout power, but now he sets it up with patience and movement instead of chaos.
The biggest issue fighters run into with Pereira is they can’t keep up with that combination of speed and mobility. He’ll slide out of range, reset, and come back in with a clean right hand or a sneaky body shot. He’s incredibly fast for the weight class, and he throws with real pop—especially early. The way to beat him has always been to weather that early storm, stay in his face, and drag him into deep waters with constant pace and pressure. But lately, guys haven’t been able to do that. He’s improved his pacing and composure, and that’s kept him fresh for longer stretches. He’s not falling apart in round 2 anymore.
Abus Magomedov is powerful and athletic, but the gaps in his game are clear. He’s dangerous early, particularly with his long strikes and his own movement, but he doesn’t push the kind of suffocating pace needed to truly beat a guy like Pereira. He also doesn’t match Pereira’s speed—his shots are a little slower, a little more telegraphed, and over time that’s going to get exposed. Pereira thrives against opponents who need the fight to be static or linear. The more you chase him without cutting the cage, the worse it gets for you.
Abus’s best chance here is using his wrestling, but the problem is Pereira’s grappling doesn’t get enough respect. He’s a legit BJJ black belt, strong in the clinch, and hard to hold down. People assume because he doesn’t wrestle offensively that he’s vulnerable on the mat, but that hasn’t really been shown. In fact, most times he’s been forced to grapple, he’s looked competent and composed—he just doesn’t need to rely on it because of how dominant his striking and movement are.
Pereira simply has more ways to win this fight. He’s faster, more elusive, and more dangerous with his shots. Abus might have some success early if he lands clean, but he’s not a pace monster. He’s not going to walk Pereira down for 15 minutes throwing combinations and dragging him into the deep end. And if you give Pereira space and time to move, he starts to look like the nightmare he really is—someone who can touch you from weird angles, land the bigger moments, and never stay in one spot long enough to be caught.