Prediction: Lerone Murphy via Decision
Lerone Murphy is the rightful side in this fight, and it’s becoming clearer with every performance that he’s a future title contender. The first time it really stood out was back in 2021 against Douglas Silva de Andrade—he showed a special level of composure, awareness, and ability to adjust on the fly. Fast forward to now, and he looks even sharper, refining his striking, improving his defense, and incorporating more wrestling as his competition gets tougher. Against Josh Emmett, all of these developments will play a huge role in securing the win.
Emmett’s biggest weapon is no secret—it’s that overhand right. He carries serious power, and if Murphy gets caught clean, it could be fight-ending. But that’s the thing—Murphy is one of the smartest, most disciplined strikers in the division. His ability to read range early is elite. He doesn’t just throw blindly; he uses feints, but not in the traditional sense of just setting up strikes. He uses entry feints, making opponents think he’s about to step in, then reading their reaction and countering accordingly. That’s a dangerous skill set against a fighter like Emmett, who relies heavily on opponents committing first so he can explode with his power shots. Murphy will keep him guessing, disrupting his rhythm, and making Emmett hesitant to pull the trigger.
Another key factor is Murphy’s ability to adjust mid-fight. He’s made mistakes before—getting clipped, losing rounds—but he always comes back stronger. He’s got the grit and championship mentality to survive adversity, make real-time adjustments, and turn the fight back in his favor. That’s a problem for Emmett, who tends to rely on big moments rather than sustained, strategic success over the course of a fight. If Murphy gets caught, he’s proven he can recover and get back to executing his game plan.
On top of all that, Murphy has started to mix in his wrestling more. It’s not something he leans on, but when he needs to, he can use it effectively. As Emmett starts loading up on big shots, don’t be surprised if Murphy changes levels and forces him to think about takedowns. This will only further open up his striking, making it even harder for Emmett to find his one-shot kill opportunity.
At the end of the day, Murphy’s range control, high fight IQ, and ability to make in-fight adjustments give him too many paths to victory. Even if Emmett finds some early success, Murphy’s ability to adapt and his willingness to win at all costs should carry him through. Expect him to pick his shots, frustrate Emmett with his movement and counters, and either earn a hard fought decision or even find a late finish as Emmett starts getting desperate.