Prediction: Loma Lookboonme via Decision
Lookboonme is a Muay Thai specialist who has adjusted her style for MMA exceptionally well. She understands that at strawweight, she’s undersized for the division, but she uses that to her advantage by always closing distance and working inside her opponent’s range. What makes her special is that she doesn’t do this recklessly—she’s constantly pressuring, but she’s methodical about it. If her opponents want to be first, she’s more than comfortable countering, using her speed to force them into fighting at her pace. The leg kicks are a huge part of this; she’ll chip away at her opponent’s movement, making it even harder for them to deal with her pressure and angles.
Nunes is a strong striker early, with clean technique and legitimate speed. She’s very good at striking off the back foot and using angle changes to keep opponents guessing. But her biggest issue is pacing—she sets a high pace early that she just can’t maintain. Even when she’s not being pushed into a brawl or a grappling-heavy fight, she fades. Against someone like Lookboonme, that’s a major problem because once the fight starts to slip away, she doesn’t have the ability to adjust and get it back.
In the first round, Nunes might have some success landing clean shots and keeping Lookboonme from completely dictating the fight. But as the fight goes on, the pressure, the leg kicks, and the speed difference will start adding up. By round two, Nunes will be reacting instead of setting up her offense, and that’s when Lookboonme can really start to take over.
The reason the line is too wide isn’t because Nunes has a great chance to win over three rounds, but because she does have enough early skill and speed to steal the first round or even make Lookboonme hesitant in exchanges early on. But as the fight drags on, Lookboonme’s ability to dictate the pace and control where the exchanges happen makes her the clear side. The best betting angle might be live betting Lookboonme after round one if Nunes has early success or playing the fight to go the distance, as Lookboonme isn’t a massive finisher.