Prediction: Ateba Gautier via KO
Jose Medina vs. Ateba Gautier is a fight where Gautier should be the probable winner via KO. Medina has proven time and time again that he is incredibly tough and can absorb a ton of damage while continuing to push forward, but that toughness has been his only defining trait. Every fight he’s in turns into a discussion about his durability rather than his skillset, which is a major problem when facing someone as powerful and precise as Gautier.
Medina doesn’t present any real danger to his opponents. He lacks finishing ability and doesn’t have the striking sharpness or power to keep an opponent honest. His durability has allowed him to survive in fights, but he continuously absorbs heavy damage, and against a refined power puncher like Gautier, that’s not a sustainable strategy.
Gautier, on the other hand, is a powerhouse with serious knockout ability. Earlier in his career, he relied too much on his natural power and would throw big, energy-draining shots without properly setting them up. This led to poor energy management, which made a fighter like Medina a potential problem for him in the past. However, since linking up with a new team, Gautier has refined his approach, gotten rid of those bad habits, and learned to put his boxing on display in a way that allows him to be more efficient.
His improvements were on full display when he fought on Dana White’s Contender Series, where he earned his UFC contract by showing a much more controlled and calculated striking game. Instead of rushing for the finish, he found his shots, stayed composed, and still found the knockout without burning himself out.
Against Medina, this newfound discipline should allow Gautier to methodically break him down and land the clean power shots needed to put him away. Medina’s toughness might allow him to survive early, but given his defensive lapses and the accumulation of damage he always takes, Gautier is likely to find the shot that ends the fight.