Prediction: Melquizael Costa via Decision
Melquizael Costa vs. Christian Rodriguez is a matchup between two composed, well-rounded fighters, but Costa should be the side here. Both fighters excel at staying patient in high-pace situations, picking their shots wisely, and maintaining strong defensive awareness in striking exchanges. The difference-maker, however, is Costa’s high-level jiu-jitsu and his methodical approach to grappling, which gives him more paths to victory.
Rodriguez is a solid grappler in his own right with strong defensive instincts, but Costa’s approach to securing control before looking for a finish is what separates them. Instead of rushing to advance position or forcing takedown sequences, Costa takes his time, ensuring he establishes control first. This will make it difficult for Rodriguez to scramble out of bad positions, as Costa won’t give him unnecessary openings to escape.
On the feet, both fighters are technically sound, but Costa’s patience and defensive awareness allow him to take minimal damage while still being offensively effective. He picks his shots well, never overextends, and stays composed even in chaotic exchanges. Rodriguez is also calculated in striking exchanges, but he’ll be facing an opponent who can match his patience while having the superior grappling edge if the fight goes to the ground.